Week 48

Hi Reader,

It was a lot of fun putting this issue together. I enjoyed slightly pulling away from the mainstream tech bubble and talking about long-term things that can swing big in terms of affecting our careers, wealth, and livelihood. Digging into this one could make reading the last 50 issues worthwhile. If you care about protecting your friends' and families' savings, please do them a favor and forward this so they can act on it.

Thanks for reading, I'm grateful and excited that you folks continue to appreciate this type of content.

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"We are at the most important juncture in FX markets in my entire 30 year career. The dollar appears at risk of an uncontrolled rise."
- Raoul Pal

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🌍 Macro

If there's one thread you read this week - make it Raoul Pal's thread on how everything is collapsing. Follow until the end to see the investment recommendations. If you're not convinced, Kevin Duffy has the current bond yields covered for you (Chart).

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Peter Turchin explains using his theory of empires that the rise in shootings is another side-effect of low-growth and bad distribution of wealth. I like Turchin because he is the closest man alive to Hari Seldon, the fictional psychohistorian who could predict the future in Asimov's Foundation. One critique would be that his theory doesn't explain why US has more shootings than other countries.

🐲 Asia

McKinsey's latest report states Asia's Future is Now.

But the under-noticed gem is Ray Dalio's video explanation on China's rise. He doesn't just talk about GDP math, but also about the historical nature of change of world powers and the probability of war.

🚀 Start-ups

Danielle Morrill writes a rarely candid post about the economic reality of starting a start-up. To be honest I was slightly disappointed. What starts as a failure story about the erosion of savings in the pursuit of a greater mission turns out to be an early retirement story when the author discovers a significant stock wind fall. It's heck of a story though.

Moats are just loops says Patrick OShaughnessy. I'd slightly reframe it to say "sustainable moats are generated by loops".

📈 Investing

Turner Novak gets Twitter to recommend stock picks. WARNING: This is probably not the best time in the cycle to act on these picks and be long equities, moreover there is some mixed advice in there; but the conversation is great.

Charlie Bilello shows US bitcoin is developing a minor anti-correlation to stocks. (Chart)

Bitcoin is the 11th largest "money" in the world. (Chart)