Week 49

Hi Reader,

Twitter is still abuzz talking about the crisis. There are a few interesting debates going on:

Yield curves have inverted. Now what?

• Some argue this is the final recession bell being sounded
• Others have reasons to believe this yield curve inversion doesn't mean there will be a recession (h/t @akberzins).

Bonds are rising. Are they still a good investment?

• Treasuries have rallied, some argue this is pricing in the recession and Trump can control this rise for a long time.
• Others have point out bonds are "overvalued" by common value metrics and should pop, wiping out 150 T.

Can you short equities?

• Some argue the only way things can move now is done.
• Others point out that Trump may be able to hold things off until the re-election, in which case time horizon may prove critical.

///

"This sounds a lot like the 1930s to me. Back then it became a real war that cost millions of lives. This war won’t cost lives, but it will cost livelihoods."
- Zero Hedge

///

🌍 Macro

David Rosenberg: "these are truly dangerous times" on Zero Hedge.

///

US yield curves inverted.

Sven Henrich talks to CNBC about there being "no great places to invest".

🚀 Start-ups

Be really cheap, advises Paul Graham. Easier said than done because money can hurt speed and lack of speed can erode opportunity.

Julian Shapiro invites you to join an exclusive group of start-up marketers.

A collection of well-designed settings pages shared with Devon Zuegel with Shopify's layout as the leader.

Kumar offers free growth advice to start-up and side-projects. Excellent thread on current growth hacks.

Suhail shares his framework for picking investors.

🎶 Misc

Austin Allred shares a wonderful thread on musicians realizing they've made it while playing live.

💵 Crypto

Anthony Sassano shares thread on decentralized exchange market share in crypto. Decentralized exchanges (DEX) are the lifeblood of an emerging financial system on crypto and important to watch.